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| Quote Zoo Zoo Boom="Zoo Zoo Boom"I would have thought it would have a impact if the virus is spread person to person isn't that the whole point of lockdown. Density will matter surely?'"
Canadian cities are as densely populated as British cities. And the vast majority of Canadians - 80%+ live in those big cities.
They have a great, vast country. But nobody is living in most of it. Population density over an entire country is irrelevant.
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| Quote The Ghost of '99="The Ghost of '99"Canadian cities are as densely populated as British cities. And the vast majority of Canadians - 80%+ live in those big cities.
They have a great, vast country. But nobody is living in most of it. Population density over an entire country is irrelevant.'"
It's a usefull straw to grasp at if you are trying to justify voting tory though.
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| Quote Ovavoo="Ovavoo"
It's a usefull straw to grasp at if you are trying to justify voting tory though.'"
Boooom
Something these lot are getting increasingly adapt at doing
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I found this article from September last year interesting and persuasive. With hindsight, also prophetic, regarding the aftermath of the US election.
https://www.noemamag.com/welcome-to-the ... -twenties/
I think the historical examples of the Corn Laws-Peterloo-Whig reform and FDR’s New Deal are powerful because they will evoke positive responses across the political spectrum. I think the point about some liberal priorities being important (to liberals at least) and legitimate, but not really offering a solution to the underlying problems is fair. Not that you can’t have both greater social justice and economic reforms, but we do have to talk about both to get there.
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I found this article from September last year interesting and persuasive. With hindsight, also prophetic, regarding the aftermath of the US election.
https://www.noemamag.com/welcome-to-the ... -twenties/
I think the historical examples of the Corn Laws-Peterloo-Whig reform and FDR’s New Deal are powerful because they will evoke positive responses across the political spectrum. I think the point about some liberal priorities being important (to liberals at least) and legitimate, but not really offering a solution to the underlying problems is fair. Not that you can’t have both greater social justice and economic reforms, but we do have to talk about both to get there.
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| Quote The Ghost of '99="The Ghost of '99"Canadian cities are as densely populated as British cities. And the vast majority of Canadians - 80%+ live in those big cities.
They have a great, vast country. But nobody is living in most of it. Population density over an entire country is irrelevant.'"
There are vast distances between these cities: Toronto to Montreal is c350 miles, Toronto to Vancouver c2,700 miles so infection can be contained a lot more easily in large communities with plenty of distance between large conurbations rather than England where there are very small distances between concentrated conurbations?
How do you explain why Belgium has had such a bad time of it - population is c1,000 sq mile - there has to be a correlation?
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| Quote Zoo Zoo Boom="Zoo Zoo Boom"There are vast distances between these cities: Toronto to Montreal is c350 miles, Toronto to Vancouver c2,700 miles so infection can be contained a lot more easily in large communities with plenty of distance between large conurbations rather than England where there are very small distances between concentrated conurbations?
How do you explain why Belgium has had such a bad time of it - population is c1,000 sq mile - there has to be a correlation?'"
My 14 year old son has a better understanding than you seem to
density in South Korea is 1,366 people per mile yet they have not had a bad a time as the UK plus being closer to China and with more links to the pandemic starting.
In Brazil it is 68.57 per mile but they have a huge number of deaths
That above should suggest that Other factors other than population density comes into it. One of the key factors in determine how bad Covid has struck has been political decisions on how best to deal with it ( although there are many other factors )
But in the top 10 worst affected countries the correlation between Covid is who is running the country ie politicians who denying it, refusing lockdowns, promoting herd immunity , effective dictatorships etc are big factors ie Brazil bolsonaro, Us Trump, Uk Boris, Russia Putin etc etc
Yes Canada may have big differences in distance between cities and maybe 200 years ago before people had Aeroplanes or Trains or Cars that might have made a difference BUT now people travel large distances very quickly . They don’t just travel on dog sled and horses . If you are in a pub in a big city in Belgium or Canada the virus spreads the same way
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| Quote Zoo Zoo Boom="Zoo Zoo Boom"There are vast distances between these cities: Toronto to Montreal is c350 miles, Toronto to Vancouver c2,700 miles so infection can be contained a lot more easily in large communities with plenty of distance between large conurbations rather than England where there are very small distances between concentrated conurbations?
How do you explain why Belgium has had such a bad time of it - population is c1,000 sq mile - there has to be a correlation?'" I don't have anything to add to what DG says.
I don't understand why you can't get your head around what aren't terribly complicated concepts. Of course there is a correlation between how tightly packed people are at a very, very localised level - i.e. inside a supermarket or a pub. But that simply doesn't translate upwards to population density over a city, let alone a county/state or country. There are far more important variables than that random metric.
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| Quote Durham Giant="Durham Giant"My 14 year old son has a better understanding than you seem to
density in South Korea is 1,366 people per mile yet they have not had a bad a time as the UK plus being closer to China and with more links to the pandemic starting.
In Brazil it is 68.57 per mile but they have a huge number of deaths
That above should suggest that Other factors other than population density comes into it. One of the key factors in determine how bad Covid has struck has been political decisions on how best to deal with it ( although there are many other factors )
But in the top 10 worst affected countries the correlation between Covid is who is running the country ie politicians who denying it, refusing lockdowns, promoting herd immunity , effective dictatorships etc are big factors ie Brazil bolsonaro, Us Trump, Uk Boris, Russia Putin etc etc
Yes Canada may have big differences in distance between cities and maybe 200 years ago before people had Aeroplanes or Trains or Cars that might have made a difference BUT now people travel large distances very quickly . They don’t just travel on dog sled and horses . If you are in a pub in a big city in Belgium or Canada the virus spreads the same way'"
I didn't say population density was the only cause but it will have been a contributory factor. Whilst you might get movement of people it will not be as prevalent as say movement between Leeds and Manchester - easy to go 30 miles in a car not so easy to do 300 or 2,000 Ottawa to Edmonton? Are you saying it is all political decisions that caused such a bad outcome?
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| Quote The Ghost of '99="The Ghost of '99"I don't have anything to add to what DG says.
I don't understand why you can't get your head around what aren't terribly complicated concepts. Of course there is a correlation between how tightly packed people are at a very, very localised level - i.e. inside a supermarket or a pub. But that simply doesn't translate upwards to population density over a city, let alone a county/state or country. There are far more important variables than that random metric.'"
How do you explain the huge increases in York and Harrogate - Mr. know-it-all?
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| Quote Zoo Zoo Boom="Zoo Zoo Boom"How do you explain the huge increases in York and Harrogate - Mr. know-it-all?'"
The more people are tested, the more cases there will be.
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| Quote WestEndThinker="WestEndThinker"The more people are tested, the more cases there will be.'"
So you are saying the cases were the same/thousand but not showing any symptoms - but all of a sudden they all started showing symptoms and the rate when up - are you for real?
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| Quote Durham Giant="Durham Giant"My 14 year old son has a better understanding than you seem to
density in South Korea is 1,366 people per mile yet they have not had a bad a time as the UK plus being closer to China and with more links to the pandemic starting.
In Brazil it is 68.57 per mile but they have a huge number of deaths
That above should suggest that Other factors other than population density comes into it. One of the key factors in determine how bad Covid has struck has been political decisions on how best to deal with it ( although there are many other factors )
But in the top 10 worst affected countries the correlation between Covid is who is running the country ie politicians who denying it, refusing lockdowns, promoting herd immunity , effective dictatorships etc are big factors ie Brazil bolsonaro, Us Trump, Uk Boris, Russia Putin etc etc
Yes Canada may have big differences in distance between cities and maybe 200 years ago before people had Aeroplanes or Trains or Cars that might have made a difference BUT now people travel large distances very quickly . They don’t just travel on dog sled and horses . If you are in a pub in a big city in Belgium or Canada the virus spreads the same way'"
Indeed. A lot of "amateur epidemiologists" have been giving us the benefit of their opinion on daytime TV recently, including talking about "just shielding the over 80's as they are the only ones dying and letting the rest of us live normally" . Well, look at the numbers - around 50% of all deaths are in the 40-80 age bracket. No suggestions on how you would do that obviously.
There is absolutely no doubt that countries who have acted to initially effect a strong lockdown, and followed that with quarantine procedures to prevent re-entrance of infection and swift, decisive action when infection re-appears are currently way better off than those who have dragged their feet every time measures are needed.
I get it. People are really suffering now, both with and without the disease and wishing there was a better way. I do think that had this disease been awkward and a vaccine was going to take much longer then we would be faced with some very tough decisions and strategy may have been different. You must get business (small business's in particular) and the economy working again at some point or we all suffer more (eventually). But it happens that Covid 19 is not a particularly difficult one to create a vaccine for (it's all relative of course). I have heard it described by the people who first characterized it in the West as "clumsy". I have known since about June that we would have a vaccine deployed around end of November - beginning of December. In fact if the FDA hadn't been so worried about US public opinion on vaccines the AZ vaccine would have been with us before the Pfizer vaccine. If I knew that then the government knew that, so that's had a big bearing on strategy so far.
There will be other global pandemics of this nature, it's inevitable, but if we do not learn the lessons of what worked and what didn't and if we listen to those who think there is a radical approach that we didn't try that would have worked brilliantly (herd immunity, selective shielding etc) then we will have a disaster of even greater proportions than we have now. This isn't the first pandemic we've had and it's not the first highly infectious disease to spread through a region of the world. There are people who study this stuff and are "experts" in what works and what doesn't. We should listen to them.
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