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| Quote getdownmonkeyman="getdownmonkeyman"
I do agree that Cooper has the credentials to be judged on her own merit, even thiough it never works like that, unfortunately.
'"
Well, the Warrington North Constituency Labour Party preferred Helen Jones to Cooper as their candidate in 1997 when Hoyle went up to the Lords. I'm not sure who this says more about.
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| Quote sally cinnamon="sally cinnamon"If we had that system it would be pretty much like European politics with a large number of parties and you end up with coalitions of a centre-right party needing to pander to some unpleasant right wingers or of a centre-left party needing to keep the Greens onside. Not saying that it's wrong just that it would bring us much more in line with the European norm.
Really in terms of winning an election, dominating the centre-left ground is key as that is where the British electorate is. Margaret Thatcher won three elections on 40-42% of the vote, with about 52-56% voting for Labour and the SDP/Liberal Alliance but the Alliance had a big share back then (23-25% or so) and so it split the vote. But when Blair established Labour in that ground he won three elections quite comfortably. There is the chance for that now as the Lib Dem vote will shrink in 2015, it just depends on where those votes go. If they go off to the Greens then the Tories might sneak a small overall majority. If they go to Labour then Labour will win because switching Lib Dem votes over to Labour in a lot of seats knocks out Tory MPs. I think with David Miliband Labour would have no problems winning in 2015 but they will find it tough with Ed who just doesn't seem cut out for the job. He might fall just short like Kinnock in 92.'"
Interesting point but under my vision we would still end up with 2 major parties but they would be genuinely philosophically opposed rather than the current liberal consensus - so more of a realignment.
So we'd have a party in favour of pulling out of the EU, smaller welfare state and grammar schools (to pick 3 policies) with a mix of capitalist and state controlled economic approaches. Along the lines of Burkean conservatism.
You'd then have a more metropolitan liberal party - totally capitalist, socially liberal (including law and order), and in favour of comprehensive education. Whiggish type party. (I know Burke was a whig but he lead the conservative strand).
There may then be other strands but I don't see full on socialists winning much electoral approval and the far right has never done anything at a national level. The Labour and Conservative parties would just be a rump with a few seats in strongholds, UKIP would be rendered redundant and that particular bunch of oddities would disappear.
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| Quote getdownmonkeyman="getdownmonkeyman"Adressing your Clinton point; Bill Clinton was an extremely popular President, even after his 'indiscretions' Balls is intrisically linked to the back-biting and infighting of Brown's tenure. I do agree that Cooper has the credentials to be judged on her own merit, even thiough it never works like that, unfortunately.
I couldn't agree more about the tired mantra of blaming Labour for all our current woes. Whilst the legacy of the past cannot be ignored, it is what is being done today that I am concerned with, and lets be honest, the cuts haven't remotely got started. I believe they are being held off for as long as possible, to give the economy chance to show real signs of growth before they really kick-in. I'm not holding my breath on that one though; hello again recession. In fact, when was the last time Osborne was seen in public?
I couldn't disagree more about Ed Milliband, he appears to have no great political acumen, and, unfortunately, he doesn't have the charisma to fill the void created by that. Rightly or wrongly, today's politics is style over substance. Didn't the Tory whips tell all and sundry to lay off Milliband as it was being to hurt them in the ratings, Tories bullying, again.
I don't think David Milliband has the charisma of a Blair, but he more than makes up for it with this intelligence.'"
Agree with the point Re:Bill Clinton - and similarities between Bill and Ed Balls are minute. Balls is indeed going to be long tarred with his part in the Brown Govt, but suprisingly he does seem to be rather astute and someone who really rattles David Cameron in PMQ's as he did again on Wednesday. And as you said Osborne is being hidden from public view by Tory Towers, and Balls is relishing this scenario. He may be a bit bafoonish but I'd sum up Ed Balls as a ruthless politician and debater.
As for Ed Miliband - I just don't think we can judge his leadership and chances of winning an election until we are at least another year down the line. And any key Labour figures with leadership ambitions must be careful not to 'rock the boat' too much or risk damaging their reputation within the Parliamentary Party.
For the record - my voting for the Leadership was as follows: 1) Andy Burnham 2) Ed Balls 3) David Miliband 4) Ed Miliband. And Diane Abbott wasn't worthy of a vote.  It's tough to imagine where the Labour Party would be if one of the other candidates was the Leader, but I don't think it'd be drastically different.
Going to be a tough Winter for Cameron and the Tories, and Miliband needs to capitalise.
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| Andy Burnham? Jesus wept. Please don't tell me you voted for him because he's almost from Warrington 
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| Quote worthing wire="worthing wire"Andy Burnham? Jesus wept. Please don't tell me you voted for him because he's almost from Warrington
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Ha Not quite - known him well for a number of years. Sat near him at Everton and was taught by his brother at Birchwood High School and thought he had some good ideas, but I think his biggest asset was his affability. Someone who the general British public could relate to well: Football fan, normal background, like Music, Loves the NHS and so on.
Tough to imagine he'll get another chance in the near future.
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| Quote sally cinnamon="sally cinnamon"Since June 2010 the economy has got worse not better.
In June 2010 the unemployment rate was 7.8% of the working age population, now its 8.1%, which is the highest its been since 1996 (the last year of the last Tory government). Youth unemployment is now the highest its been since 1992 (the last time the Tories won an election outright). The Tories made a big issue of youth unemployment at the last election, saying it was Labour's legacy of failure for the young people, this has dropped off the Tory agenda now that they are seeing it is going up.
In June 2010 inflation was 3.2%, now its 5.2%, which is the highest its been since 1991. Compare that to earnings growth which is 2.8% which means average real incomes have fallen about 2.3% in the past year.
In the year up to June 2010 the economy grew 2.2%. In the past year it has grown 0.5%, despite George Osborne titling his Budget this year as "A budget for growth".
As regards progress on deficit reduction, in the financial year to date expenditure is 2.9% higher than it was at this point last year (although taking into consideration inflation of 5.2% that is a cut in real terms). But tax revenues are 4.9% higher than they were at this point last year, so there has been some closing of the primary deficit. Tax receipts have risen despite there being fewer taxpayers and more benefit claimants, the reason it's higher is because of the rise in VAT and also the top 50% tax rate which Alastair Darling brought in but has mainly been collected by a Tory government. A lot of Osborne's Tory chums have been lobbying the press to cut that 50% tax rate saying it loses money for the exchequer because all the rich leave for Switzerland etc but Osborne has been reticent on actually cutting it because he knows that it is bringing revenue in.
The Coalition government have taken the UK government backwards and they haven't got a convincing plan to move forwards. All George Osborne clings to is saying that the yield on UK government bonds (ie the interest rate at which the government can borrow) has fallen, which it has, but the interest rate on bonds also reflects market expectations as to interest rates in the economy, when they expect interest rates to be low for the long term then 5 year and 10 year bond yields will drop. They are going to be low because there is no expectation that the Bank of England will put them up to try and deflate a boom. If the economy was looking healthier then these rates would go up. So Osborne is claiming a success for something that is just a reflection of the fact international markets have written off the UK economy as being in the doldrums for a while ahead.
I am not saying things would be great had Labour won the last election but a hard analysis of the facts are that the economy has slipped slightly backwards since the Coalition has taken over.
In rugby league terms its like Mick Potter replacing Steve McNamara at Bradford. There is no noticeable improvement, but if Potter blamed Steve McNamara every time Bradford lost it would start wearing thin after a while, and that's what the Coalition are doing.'"
The facts are that if we like it or not we are in the best of a bad position at the moment. If labour had got back in we would be in the same position as Greece now as the labour plan was to keep spending our way out of recession. The Euro problem will cause all our problems over the next 24 months and nobody saw that.
This Government has not gone forward in any way however given the world some confidence that we are at least trying to stop the spending.
Worse it about to come especially in the Public sector where we will have major problems bringing in pension reform which is long overdue to be honest.
So are we better off under the Tories ...but if it was labour we would have been an Ireland/ Spain / Greece now. Look at history over the years labour overspends and the Tories mop it up.
Hard times ahead folks the European situation is on the brink of disaster.
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| Quote wireboot="wireboot"The facts are that if we like it or not we are in the best of a bad position at the moment. If labour had got back in we would be in the same position as Greece now as the labour plan was to keep spending our way out of recession. The Euro problem will cause all our problems over the next 24 months and nobody saw that.
This Government has not gone forward in any way however given the world some confidence that we are at least trying to stop the spending.
Worse it about to come especially in the Public sector where we will have major problems bringing in pension reform which is long overdue to be honest.
So are we better off under the Tories ...but if it was labour we would have been an Ireland/ Spain / Greece now. Look at history over the years labour overspends and the Tories mop it up.
Hard times ahead folks the European situation is on the brink of disaster.'"
The Tories mop it up?
Have you neglected to remember the way Thatcher and Major had the economy? We keep seeing records broken (highest % of population out of work, most young people out of work etc), records which were generaly from 1992. The country Blair invested in 1997 wasn't in good order and he rode the boom he created, just failed to prepare and regulate against a bust.
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| Quote wireboot="wireboot"Look at history over the years labour overspends and the Tories mop it up.'"
Those Labour budgets up till the Lehmann brothers crash in 2008 that set off the world recession were pretty much identical in deficit terms to the Conservative budgets under John Major's government.
Borrowing spiked as a result of the recession because of the lost output and lost taxation revenues. Labour only ran really high deficits for two years. The Tories have run a really high deficit for one.
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| Sal seeing as you have your finger on the pulse of politics how do you feel this country would have gone if it hadn't been a coalition government? No, better still how would we be if
A) The Tories had been in power
B) Labour
C) Lib dems
D) UKIP
E) Greens
F) BNP
Would it have changed for the better or worse with those in charged, obviously i'd like to think a lot worse with a certain party, but seriously without your usually sarcastic look on life and basing it on their election manifesto how do think it could have gone.
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| Quote sally cinnamon="sally cinnamon"
Those Labour budgets up till the Lehmann brothers crash in 2008 that set off the world recession were pretty much identical in deficit terms to the Conservative budgets under John Major's government.
Borrowing spiked as a result of the recession because of the lost output and lost taxation revenues. Labour only ran really high deficits for two years. The Tories have run a really high deficit for one.'"
These figures don't take into account the spending Brown hid through devices such as PFI. If they're included then the figures are far worse.
The other issue is that the spending was predominantly on the public sector whilst the private sector as a percentage shrunk. We kept spending but not on projects that would provide us with a long-term benefit as a country e.g. rebuilding the branch railway network. Alot of the hospital and school building projects were funded through PFI so they're not in these figures. Much of the spending was on (activate Daily Mail mode)non-jobs that were essentially unproductive to the overall economy.
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| Quote ChiswickWire="ChiswickWire"These figures don't take into account the spending Brown hid through devices such as PFI. If they're included then the figures are far worse.
The other issue is that the spending was predominantly on the public sector whilst the private sector as a percentage shrunk. We kept spending but not on projects that would provide us with a long-term benefit as a country e.g. rebuilding the branch railway network. Alot of the hospital and school building projects were funded through PFI so they're not in these figures. Much of the spending was on (activate Daily Mail mode)non-jobs that were essentially unproductive to the overall economy.'"
PFIs aren't 'hidden' in one financial year, they are paid back over 25 years. It was quite a simple option; continue with the total lack of investment in schools and hospitals pre-1997 or find a viable payment vehicle that made the hospital and schoool build progamme affordable. Let us not forget, PFI was the brainchild of John Major's government.
I would change your reference material from the Daily Mail.
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| Supporters of PFI - the Conservatives, Tony Blair and New Labourites
Opponents of PFI - Unions, Labour backbenchers, the Guardian
Now it seems the Conservatives have converted to being opponents of PFI and are saying the same things the lefties were saying ten years ago about it 'mortgaging the country's future'. Funny that.
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